Source: Zhuo Chuang Information
In 2018, the operation of the Chinese tissue market has the following characteristics:
First, the rapid growth of production capacity, the industry's overcapacity problems, so the current life paper market entry threshold is improved, new companies to enter the market, the annual production capacity must reach 100,000 tons and above.
Second, the price of imported wood pulp fluctuated at a high level, and downstream demand continued to be sluggish, and the market was greatly affected by demand.
Third, the overall profit of the industry has declined. Some small and medium-sized paper enterprises are unable to escape the high cost and the industry concentration has been further improved.
In 2014, the household paper market showed a situation of oversupply, and the contradiction between supply and demand became more prominent.
From the perspective of supply, the supply trend of the tissue paper market in 2014-2018 has increased. Because it is a rigid demand, and at the same time the domestic economy is developing steadily, market participants are optimistic about the future development of the industry. In recent years, the capacity of tissue paper has grown rapidly. It is estimated that the industry's production capacity will increase from 11.098 million tons in 2014 to more than 14 million tons in 2018, an increase of about 3 million tons.
In terms of demand, the general trend of demand for tissue paper in 2014-2018 is also increasing. Since the per capita consumption of household paper is positively correlated with per capita GDP, the development of the domestic economy and the increase in the population have a greater impact on the household paper industry. The demand is expected to increase from 6.617 million tons in 2014 to 9 million tons in 2018, an increase of about 2 million tons.
From the price point of view, the price of the tissue paper market in the third quarter of 2014-2016 fluctuated little. Since the fourth quarter of 2016, due to the multiple factors such as the price of imported wood pulp and the depreciation of the RMB against the US, the price of the tissue paper market has risen. The upward trend has continued until the beginning of 2018. It is expected that the average price of household paper will increase by 50-200/ton in 2018.
Editor in charge: Ge Hongyan
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