The paper industry's prosperity is still high from January to August 2018, and the paper industry's prosperity is expected to continue to improve.
In recent years, affected by favorable factors such as supply-side reform and stricter environmental protection policies, the paper industry has continued to improve. Although the overall output of the paper industry has declined in the short term, the competitiveness of leading enterprises is constantly increasing, and the concentration of the industry is expected to be further improved.
On October 19, 2018, the latest statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics showed that from January to August 2018, paper and paper products enterprises above designated size achieved a main business income of 950.86 billion yuan; total profit was 54.25 billion. Among them, the national paper industry's accumulated main business income was 572.36 billion, accumulatively increasing by 11.4%; total accumulated profit was 34.39 billion, accumulatively increasing by 7.1% year-on-year, and the paper industry's prosperity was still high. Industry insiders predict that the tight supply and demand situation of the paper industry in 2018 will continue, and the prosperity of the paper industry is expected to continue to improve.
From the industry sentiment index of the National Bureau of Statistics, since 2010, the business climate of China's paper and paper products industry has always been higher than 100. In the first quarter of 2017, the prosperity index has always been above 120. In the first quarter of 2018, the prosperity index was 130, and the first half of the 2018 boom index was 128.2. The prosperity of China's paper industry continues to improve.
Under the continuous influence of environmental protection policies, the advantages of China's leading papermaking enterprises have become more prominent, and the overall production and sales of leading enterprises have been better. Judging from the changes in production and sales volume of major papermaking enterprises in China, the production of mechanical papers of Murray Paper, Shanying Paper and Yueyang Paper in the first half of 2018 have increased in different degrees. The output of Chenming Paper Industry is slightly There is a decline. In the first half of the year, Shanying Paper and Chenming Paper's sales in the first half of the year increased by 35.2% and 103.3% respectively.
Industry entry barriers are getting higher and higher, and domestic production capacity expansion is blocked.
The strictening of environmental protection policies and the implementation of the sewage permit system have led to the continuous improvement of the entry barriers of China's paper industry, as well as the profitability of existing capacity and new capacity. It is understood that the current investment in environmental protection equipment of papermaking enterprises is between 300-400/ton, and the operating cost of environmental protection equipment is between 40-100/ton. In addition, due to capacity scale, capital requirements, equipment requirements, self-provided power plant and other supporting project approval, environmental protection and other policies, transportation policies and other constraints, new capacity expansion is more difficult.
It is understood that due to environmental protection policies and other factors, the progress of several projects originally planned to be put into operation in 2018 or 2019 is not up to expectations. Industry capacity expansion is more affected.
Take Nine Dragons Paper as an example. On September 19, 2018, Nine Dragons Paper announced its 2018 financial report. Its financial report shows that several new projects under construction by Xiaolong did not achieve the expected progress and were all delayed. According to industry analysts, in addition to market supply and demand reasons, factors such as continued pressure on policies, concerns about future markets, and uncertainties in Sino-US trade may all become slow progress in the new capacity of Nine Dragons Paper. Influencing factors.
In addition to Nine Dragons Paper, there are still many new paper production capacity construction projects in operation. However, the current complex situation of the paper industry and the growth of market uncertainties have affected the strategic layout of various paper enterprises to varying degrees.
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