Recently, the National Building Materials Home Furnishings Index (BHI), jointly issued by the Circulation Department of the Ministry of Commerce and the China Building Materials Circulation Association, showed that the National Building Materials Household Climate Index rose to 130.29 in October, becoming the second highest peak since the release of the prosperity index. To this end, some scholars are worried about the excessive rise in October, whether it will overdraw the purchasing power of the next two months. Some responsible persons of home furnishing enterprises said that if there is a decline in November and December, it should fall within the reasonable fall of the industry. In addition, even in the off-season of the year, soft clothing such as lamps and accessories will not be cold.
October industry sentiment index peaked
Recently, the National Building Materials Household Climate Index (BHI) jointly issued by the Circulation Department of the Ministry of Commerce and the China Building Materials Circulation Association rose to 130.29 in October, up 9.47% from the previous month and up 7.52% year-on-year. At the same time, the national building materials store above designated size 10 Monthly sales were 142 billion yuan, up 20.28% from the previous month.
It is understood that this year, the entire building materials and home furnishing industry has fallen into a sluggish state, and the prosperity index is also continuing to be low. In January of this year, BHI even fell to a low of 85.74. It never surpassed 120 in September, but suddenly rose to more than 130 in October, and it has become the second only since 2010 when the prosperity index was released in March 2010. The second highest peak of May 134.9.
For the peaks displayed by BHI, some of the big stores and brands in Beijing have expressed a clear feeling. Wang Wei, vice president of Red Star Macalline Group, and Ren Chengjun, vice president of Real Estate Group, said that the sales during the “10·1†period this year. Compared with the same period last year, it has increased by more than 30%. As this year's National Day and the Mid-Autumn Festival are linked together, it has contributed a lot to the emergence of the high peak in October this year. Liu Yang, deputy general manager of Chengwai Furniture Plaza, also told reporters that the overall holiday situation has increased compared with last year. 60%, sales increased from more than 60 million yuan last year to more than 130 million yuan this year.
Qin Zhanxue, vice president of China Building Materials Circulation Association, believes that in addition to the sales season in October, the main reason for the sharp increase in BHI is that some real estate developers have publicized that real estate may explode in the first quarter of next year, causing some properties to “just need†suddenly. Released, everyone rushed into the market, fearing price increases, which pushed up the price of commercial housing.
Reasonable fallback is not an overdraft
According to data released by the association, the cumulative sales of building materials and home appliances above designated size in the first ten months of this year was 1,039.1 billion yuan, down 4.6% year-on-year. Since the beginning of this year, the performance of building materials and home furnishing industry has not been satisfactory. In October, as the traditional peak season of the industry, various merchants' stores seized the strong sales promotion during the last prosperous season, which stimulated the sharp rise of BHI. Qin Zhanxue reminded that the cold current of building materials and home furnishing industry has not passed, BHI October Too high to rise, businesses and stores need to consider whether it will be overdraft for a few months after the purchasing power and popularity, and timely response to the plan.
The industry generally believes that there is no need to worry too much about whether it will overdraw consumer demand or purchasing power in the next few months. Most stores and brands attribute the high peak in October to the innovation of marketing means and the improvement of service quality. They believe that after November, as the number of consumers in winter decoration is less and less, the decline in sales is normal. Years will happen.
On the one hand, because consumers have more time to consider the decoration before and after the long holiday in October, on the other hand, this time is also the time when the discounts of the stores are relatively strong, so the consumers of the decoration will be more concentrated at this time, and even some people are ahead of schedule. Consumption may fall back in November, but there is no need to worry about overdraft. He Fuwei, director of the market of Zhibang cabinets in Beijing, said that because consumers who buy furniture and building materials will have houses in the next 1-2 months, no one will buy furniture when they are ahead of the house, so until November and December. There will still be demand, but it is not as concentrated as it was in October.
Shen Yaojun, vice president of Jimei Home Furnishing Group, also said that household consumption is not like toothpaste, towels and other daily necessities. You can buy more than one at a time and use it slowly. There is no place to buy a piece of furniture, and no one buys it. So the consumption power is The proportion of early digestion in October is small, and the appearance of high peaks will not have much impact for the next few months.
Consumption hotspot
Soft loading consumes into the peak season
Although the general consumption of households will fall back to a certain extent after November, there are also other industries such as home furnishings that are not falling. Liu Yang believes that some of the household products are not obviously in the off-season season. After the decoration is finished, the things added to the interior, such as lighting (lighting decoration renderings), curtains (curtain decoration renderings), ornaments, etc., are affected. Not so big. Because they are all things that beautify the home, even if the home is not renovated, consumers may change it. Not only that, these products may also be affected by the festival, such as the New Year's Day, the Spring Festival and other festive days, there are some promotions, you can also get good sales.
He Wei, general manager of Colliers International Lighting Port, also said that the peak industry in October generally felt that in the industry, but there are still many customers in the store in November. “As some of our dealers report, the store is very lively on the weekend. There are quite a few consumers who come to buy lamps."
As a supplement to household products in recent years, soft clothing has indeed been welcomed by more and more consumers. Shen Zheng, director of the operation of the home furnishing accessories port, believes that after people meet the needs of living through hard-wearing, they will inevitably aspire to a higher level of spiritual satisfaction. People’s demand for soft-packed products may now be considered as “may be optionalâ€. "Flexible demand, but in terms of the overall development of the industry strategy, the demand for soft clothing is about to become a rigid demand.
In this regard, the general manager of the North Fourth Ring store, Meng Xiangmin believes that whether the soft-packed will fall back with the entire market after October, it has to be treated differently, for some soft-packed products that match the overall style of the home, such as curtains, Carpets and the like are part of the overall home, and their sales are connected to the overall market, but products decorated with hoods, table lamps, small ornaments, etc. may have little effect.
Industry sound
Early consumption is overdraft
Wang Pengfei, Sales Manager of Lens Bathroom Beijing
Everything in the industry is basically the same every year. Because the activities in October are relatively large, consumers are basically willing to buy at this time. This is the most prosperous season. Some of these consumers must have consumed in advance, but they are also overdrafting the consumer demand for the next two months.
There are almost all such rules in all markets. Not only do building materials, homes, and department stores, but many industries have such phenomena, and this effect is even more apparent when they are linked to the Mid-Autumn Festival in October this year. There may be some household items that are selling very well after October, but after all, there will not be too many people decorating the Spring Festival, and most of them should be done.
Low season to promote industry reshuffle
Lu Jiyi, General Manager, Gold Cabinet, Beijing Branch
We have been growing in the second half of this year. Under the continuous control of real estate, the market capacity will certainly not fluctuate greatly, but there will be some rigid demand release every month. As long as we seize these customer groups, the impact of the peak season will not be great.
The main test in the off-season is the brand's operational ability, customer service satisfaction and marketing capabilities. Like a European country, there are three or four brands, and others are some supplements. However, due to the development of urbanization, many real estates are advancing steadily, and the downstream market is constantly expanding. Many brands are constantly emerging and falling. For the home building materials industry, this is also a process of reshuffling and two-level differentiation. The resources of the market are tilted towards some important brands, and some brands stand out.
The market is dynamic
Yin Yuxin, Deputy General Manager of Oriental Home Yuquanying Store
Our October data has increased slightly compared to previous years, and the composite index has increased by 3.67% compared with the same period last year. In fact, every time you go to the node, there will be some worries and worries. For the business, this kind of worry is always there.
However, consumers are consuming according to their own needs, and the market is dynamic because it does not change the consumption behavior. It will not freeze because of the departure of the festival. There are nodes that lead to consumption in advance or lag, but it will never be an overall trend, and the market context will continue.
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